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2002 Parliamentary Elections
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Announcements
RCC Brief: Notes to “Vybory 2002:
One Outcome Scenario”
On March 30, 2002, you received a
.pdf file called “Vybory
2002: One Outcome Scenario.” The table was compiled from two sources: Fond
Obschestvenehe Mnenya (FOM), a Russian polling firm, and the joint EU-KP Publications
effort “Shtab Kvartyra - HQ,” located at www.hq.org.ua
The table is not a crystal ball.
Rather, it provides a basis for evaluating the predictions made by experts, and to
determine general trends in parliamentary factions after the elections. The actual
results will inevitably vary.
FOM is closely associated with the
Fund for Effective Politics, a Moscow-based “political technology” outfit, run by Hleb
Pavlovsky, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s PR guru. FOM’s results can be substituted
by public opinion poll data from a variety of Ukrainian sources (including Kyiv
International Institute of Sociology, the Razumkov Center, Socis, Social Monitoring,
Institute of Sociology, etc. see www.brama.com/news/RCC_PollReviewMar15.pdf). The
Ukrainian firms naturally have far more experience in Ukraine.
FOM’s results were chosen for a
number of reasons. First, they appear to be in-line with general trends reported by
Ukrainian polling agencies. FOM actually has 3 different scenarios available on the
website www.ukr.ru. These scenarios also indicate that if voter turn-out is
higher than 67.2%, then the Nasha Ukrayina Bloc, the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the
Socialists will fare better.
FOM’s results also do not indicate
the possible effects of the full media press by the Yabloko, Komanda Ozymoho Pokolinya,
Nataliya Vitrenko’s Bloc and the Green Party in the last days of the campaign.
It is interesting to note, that the
FOM/FEP findings place the opposition forces of BYUT and the Socialists beyond the 4%
barrier, because FEP has been working closely with SDPU(o) during the campaign. Also, the
Greens are conspicuously missing from the FOM poll. The results of March 31, 2002 will go
towards evaluating the accuracy of FOM’s polls in Ukraine.
The table is a combination of freely
available findings from Ukrainian, European and Russian sources. The table is not
intended to predict the results, rather point to general trends.
These trends and some observations
include:
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| 1. |
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There
is likely to be an initially strong pro-presidential group in parliament, formed by
ZaYedU, Women for the Future, and Independents (together, more than 120 MPs). The biggest
challenge to this grouping will be remaining together. In 1998, the People’s Democratic
“party of power,” NDP, formed the second strongest faction in parliament, but gradually
fell apart. |
| 2. |
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Independents
will play a pivotal role in parliamentary faction formation. |
| 3. |
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The
Democratic (Horbulin) and Yednist (Omelchenko) blocs, are likely to have their own
factions in parliament, on account of Independents joining them. Yabluko, and Ozymy
Pokolinya may also form factions based on the Independents. |
| 4. |
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The
number of Communist MPs is likely to be significantly down. The table suggests that the
Communists will be represented by 55 MPs. That number appears to be very low,
particularly in the single mandate seats. |
| 5. |
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The
table assumes a voter-turn-out of 67.2%. Voter-turn-out is likely to be higher, due to
the hype surrounding the election campaign. |
| 6. |
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No
single party or bloc has more the necessary 226 votes to form a lone parliamentary
majority. A parliamentary majority, therefore, will depend on a coalition. |
| 7. |
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No
single party of bloc has the necessary 300 votes to form a constitutional majority. In
terms of introducing changes to the Constitution (e.g.: implementing the results of the
2000 Referendum), more significant is whether or not there will be a coalition of 151
votes that will be a “Constitutional spoiler” group in parliament. |
The formula used to calculate the
number of seats allotted by the party list vote is:
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|
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| % of popular vote |
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number of seats |
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| = |
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| Total % of parties/blocs | |
225 | |
| that cross 4% | |
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An example
In 1998, the Communist Party won
just under 25% percent of the total popular vote. At first glance, 25% of 225 equal 57
seats. After the final tally however, the Communists were allotted 37% of the seats (or
84 MPs).
This 27 seat bonus resulted from the
fact that 22 parties failed to cross the 4% barrier. In total, the “below 4%” parties
accounted for 26% of the total popular vote (6.8 million votes). Those votes, together
with the “none of the above,” do not count towards the final distribution of seats.
Using the elections of 1998 as an
example, the total popular vote was distributed as follows (numbers are rounded off):
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| • |
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66% for parties that crossed the 4% barrier (8 parties/blocs) |
| • |
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26% for parties that failed to cross the 4% barrier (22 parties/blocs) |
| • |
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8% against all parties and blocs (the “none of the above” option) |
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Thus, 66% became the base 100% for
calculating each party’s share of all 225 seats.
Therefore, a simple formula for
calculating the number of seats in 1998 was: [(% of popular vote) multiplied by 225]
divided by 66. In this way, a “bonus” is divided up proportionally by all of the parties
that cross the 4% barrier.
Thus, the size of the bonus is a
very significant factor in the final distribution of 225 proportional representation
seats. Noteworthy is, that this system takes a citizen’s vote and gives it to a party or
electoral bloc for which the voter did not intend.
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The above was provided by
RCC Political Review
About RCC Political Review
RCC Political Review is a new information product devoted to
reporting and analyzing political developments in Ukraine. It is
currently distributed free-of-charge in electronic format as an
e-mail message and A-4 format Word document. Materials published in
RCC Political Review may only be reproduced with the consent of the
Editorial Board. Upon reproduction, citing and crediting RCC is
mandatory.
To find out more about RCC's research, analysis, writing and
reporting services, please contact our new Ukraine office.
RCC's new Ukraine office is located at 25/40 Ivana Franka, Suite 20
in Kyiv, Ukraine, 01030. Call us at + 380 (44) 223-63-63, or contact
us via e-mail - info@rccpr.com.ua to find out how you can put RCC's
experience, know-how and resources to work for you.
RCC Political Review is produced by the Editorial Board:
Stephen Bandera, Yarema Bachynsky, Mark Suprun, Lubomyr Kwasnycia,
Jerry Dutkewych and Basil Danchuk.
RCC - the most experienced Western communications firm working in Ukraine.
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