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Parliamentary Elections 2002
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Parliamentary Elections 2004
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    2002 Parliamentary Elections

    Announcements

    RCC Brief: Notes to “Vybory 2002: One Outcome Scenario”

    On March 30, 2002, you received a .pdf file called “Vybory 2002: One Outcome Scenario.” The table was compiled from two sources: Fond Obschestvenehe Mnenya (FOM), a Russian polling firm, and the joint EU-KP Publications effort “Shtab Kvartyra - HQ,” located at www.hq.org.ua

    The table is not a crystal ball. Rather, it provides a basis for evaluating the predictions made by experts, and to determine general trends in parliamentary factions after the elections. The actual results will inevitably vary.

    FOM is closely associated with the Fund for Effective Politics, a Moscow-based “political technology” outfit, run by Hleb Pavlovsky, Russian president Vladimir Putin’s PR guru. FOM’s results can be substituted by public opinion poll data from a variety of Ukrainian sources (including Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, the Razumkov Center, Socis, Social Monitoring, Institute of Sociology, etc. see www.brama.com/news/RCC_PollReviewMar15.pdf). The Ukrainian firms naturally have far more experience in Ukraine.

    FOM’s results were chosen for a number of reasons. First, they appear to be in-line with general trends reported by Ukrainian polling agencies. FOM actually has 3 different scenarios available on the website www.ukr.ru. These scenarios also indicate that if voter turn-out is higher than 67.2%, then the Nasha Ukrayina Bloc, the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc and the Socialists will fare better.

    FOM’s results also do not indicate the possible effects of the full media press by the Yabloko, Komanda Ozymoho Pokolinya, Nataliya Vitrenko’s Bloc and the Green Party in the last days of the campaign.

    It is interesting to note, that the FOM/FEP findings place the opposition forces of BYUT and the Socialists beyond the 4% barrier, because FEP has been working closely with SDPU(o) during the campaign. Also, the Greens are conspicuously missing from the FOM poll. The results of March 31, 2002 will go towards evaluating the accuracy of FOM’s polls in Ukraine.

    The table is a combination of freely available findings from Ukrainian, European and Russian sources. The table is not intended to predict the results, rather point to general trends.

    These trends and some observations include:


    1. There is likely to be an initially strong pro-presidential group in parliament, formed by ZaYedU, Women for the Future, and Independents (together, more than 120 MPs). The biggest challenge to this grouping will be remaining together. In 1998, the People’s Democratic “party of power,” NDP, formed the second strongest faction in parliament, but gradually fell apart.

    2. Independents will play a pivotal role in parliamentary faction formation.

    3. The Democratic (Horbulin) and Yednist (Omelchenko) blocs, are likely to have their own factions in parliament, on account of Independents joining them. Yabluko, and Ozymy Pokolinya may also form factions based on the Independents.

    4. The number of Communist MPs is likely to be significantly down. The table suggests that the Communists will be represented by 55 MPs. That number appears to be very low, particularly in the single mandate seats.

    5. The table assumes a voter-turn-out of 67.2%. Voter-turn-out is likely to be higher, due to the hype surrounding the election campaign.

    6. No single party or bloc has more the necessary 226 votes to form a lone parliamentary majority. A parliamentary majority, therefore, will depend on a coalition.

    7. No single party of bloc has the necessary 300 votes to form a constitutional majority. In terms of introducing changes to the Constitution (e.g.: implementing the results of the 2000 Referendum), more significant is whether or not there will be a coalition of 151 votes that will be a “Constitutional spoiler” group in parliament.


    The formula used to calculate the number of seats allotted by the party list vote is:


    % of popular vote number of seats  

    =
    Total % of parties/blocs  225 
    that cross 4% 

    An example

    In 1998, the Communist Party won just under 25% percent of the total popular vote. At first glance, 25% of 225 equal 57 seats. After the final tally however, the Communists were allotted 37% of the seats (or 84 MPs).

    This 27 seat bonus resulted from the fact that 22 parties failed to cross the 4% barrier. In total, the “below 4%” parties accounted for 26% of the total popular vote (6.8 million votes). Those votes, together with the “none of the above,” do not count towards the final distribution of seats.

    Using the elections of 1998 as an example, the total popular vote was distributed as follows (numbers are rounded off):


    66% for parties that crossed the 4% barrier (8 parties/blocs)

    26% for parties that failed to cross the 4% barrier (22 parties/blocs)

    8% against all parties and blocs (the “none of the above” option)

    Thus, 66% became the base 100% for calculating each party’s share of all 225 seats.

    Therefore, a simple formula for calculating the number of seats in 1998 was: [(% of popular vote) multiplied by 225] divided by 66. In this way, a “bonus” is divided up proportionally by all of the parties that cross the 4% barrier.

    Thus, the size of the bonus is a very significant factor in the final distribution of 225 proportional representation seats. Noteworthy is, that this system takes a citizen’s vote and gives it to a party or electoral bloc for which the voter did not intend.



    The above was provided by
    RCC Political Review
    RCC Political Review


    About RCC Political Review

    RCC Political Review is a new information product devoted to reporting and analyzing political developments in Ukraine. It is currently distributed free-of-charge in electronic format as an e-mail message and A-4 format Word document. Materials published in RCC Political Review may only be reproduced with the consent of the Editorial Board. Upon reproduction, citing and crediting RCC is mandatory.

    To find out more about RCC's research, analysis, writing and reporting services, please contact our new Ukraine office. RCC's new Ukraine office is located at 25/40 Ivana Franka, Suite 20 in Kyiv, Ukraine, 01030. Call us at + 380 (44) 223-63-63, or contact us via e-mail - info@rccpr.com.ua to find out how you can put RCC's experience, know-how and resources to work for you.

    RCC Political Review is produced by the Editorial Board:

    Stephen Bandera, Yarema Bachynsky, Mark Suprun, Lubomyr Kwasnycia, Jerry Dutkewych and Basil Danchuk.

    RCC - the most experienced Western communications firm working in Ukraine.


     

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