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2002 Parliamentary Elections
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Opinion: Seize the decade!
Ukrainian analysts and journalists agree that the March 31
parliamentary elections will be significant for two reasons. First,
this parliament will sit until 2006, beyond the second (and final)
term of current president, Leonid Kuchma. His post-presidential fate
will be decided, to a large extent, by the makeup of the next
parliament. Secondly, the next president will likely emerge from
among the MPs elected this year. Given the administrative advantages
of the presidential chair, the next president is likely to serve two
five-year terms also, until 2014.
But these elections also have another special significance, one that
can turn into a convincing asset for the country's tattered
international image. For the first time since independence, there is
an electoral alternative that can displace the Communists as the
single most popular political force in Ukrainian politics.
That bloc is Nasha Ukrayina, a coalition of center and right wing
parties, led by former Prime Minister Victor Yushchenko.
Opponents charge that the coalition is haphazard and situational.
They argue that it is comprised of disparate individuals with
incompatible ideologies. The only thing that unites Nasha Ukrayina,
according to opponents, is the desire to ride into parliament on the
Yushchenko horse.
Evangelists claim that they stand united behind Yushchenko, and are
willing to make sacrifices for a greater agenda. They believe that
his 16-month track record as PM has proven that a definite break with
the past is possible.
When the bloc was first announced, Nasha Ukrayina's poll numbers
placed it in first place. The latest polls show Nasha Ukrayina
falling to the Communists' popularity level (consistently 19%). One
recent poll even has the Communists beating Yushchenko. About
one-quarter of voters are still undecided, but the fight for first
place is limited to these two contenders. The next closest party, the
United Social Democrats, trail the two by more than 10%.
Nasha Ukrayina is losing ground through a concerted campaign to
discredit the bloc and its leader, on most of the national TV outlets
and tabloids. So far in the campaign, Yushchenko's public
appearances in the regions, including local media outlets, have been
sabotaged at least three times. Campaign 2002 has shown that
elections in Ukraine's young democracy are a sordid business. These
may go down as the dirtiest elections ever.
Not surprisingly, the Communists and oligarchs are doing everything
possible to throw wrenches into the Yushchenko campaign machine.
What is alarming, however, is that they are joined by some
nationalists, pro-presidential politicians, and other center,
center-right political forces, that purport to be anti-Communist in
their convictions.
It is easy to see how Yushchenko represents a real threat to the
Communists and oligarchs. But why the others?
Rather than join together and think about Ukraine's future in
strategic terms, the majority of the political elite is content with
focusing energies on internal strife. Their main concerns are
short-term tactical victories for their respective parties, clans,
and fiefdoms. And those concerns coincide with those of other
forces, bent on the nostalgia of seeing Ukraine part of some
resurrected brotherly union.
Indeed, there seems to be little concern for the fate of the country
beyond 2004 - the year of the next presidential elections - among
that elite.
When the country awakes with a political hangover on April 1, 2002,
the worst joke possible will be that the Communists beat Nasha
Ukrayina for the parliamentary majority. If that in fact happens, it
will unfortunately be a joke that Ukrainians played on themselves.
The above was provided by
RCC Political Review
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