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    What will L.Kuchma's fate be under the Yushchenko presidency?
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    BRAMA News and Community Press

    BRAMA, Apr 20, 2006, 9:00 am ET

    Press release

    The Recent Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine: A Review
    — By Oleksandr Khapatnyukovsky, U.S.-Ukraine Foundation

    On Monday, April 10, The Washington Group (TWG), in conjunction with the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), hosted a "The Recent Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine: A Review" presentation. Speakers included Orest Deychakiwsky, Senior Staff Advisor at the U.S. Helsinki Commission and a Ukrainian Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) election observer, Adrian Karatnycky, President of Orange Circle, and Serhiy Kudelia, SAIS Ph.D. candidate. The event was held at 7:00 p.m. at SAIS in Washington, D.C.

    The panelists assessed the procedure of the first parliamentary elections in Ukraine after the constitutional reform had come into power, analyzed how the elections were conducted and gave their perspectives of the election's implications.

    As the evening's first panelist, Orest Deychakiwsky emphasised the importance of the post-election assessment of the OSCE-led election mission, which included observers from the parliamentary assemblies of the OSCE, EU, Council of Europe and NATO. This was the first time the OSCE had called any elections among the 12 former Soviet republics outside the Baltics "free and fair". This, according to Deychakiwsky, underscores the consolidation of democratic gains made in the Orange Revolution. Comparing the recent elections to the first two rounds of the 2004 presidential elections in Ukraine, Mr. Deychakiwsky noted that temniki, state interference, and the use of administrative resources and intimidation, harassment, and outright fraud were largely a thing of the past. This time there was a freer media and decidedly more balanced media coverage and the elections were conducted in an atmosphere of true competition. He also compared the Rada elections with the presidential elections in Belarus held a week earlier, which he described as a "farce."

    However, there will still some shortcomings in the election process. The holding of both national and local elections at the same time added to difficulties in the efficiency of the election process, leading to long lines and overcrowding in some polling stations. Outdated or incorrect information in voter lists with the recent voter registration overhaul also led to complications -- even disenfranchising some voters. Deychakiwsky praised the hundreds of thousands of election workers and non-partisan domestic and party observers for their hard work in ensuring the transparency of the voting and vote count. He stressed that the shortcomings were mostly organizational and logistical, and not the result of a centralized, planned attempt to manipulate the election, and that the election results reflected the will of the people. With these elections, said Mr. Deychakiwsky, "Ukraine's leadership and people have shown their commitment to democracy in a very tangible way."

    Following Deychakiwsky`s presentation, Serhiy Kudelia focused on the results of the elections. He strongly criticized the President of Ukraine Viktor Yushchenko for his failure to unite the Ukrainian people after the Orange Revolution of 2004. "Cultural and regional identities in Ukraine transformed into political ones", said Kudelia. He characterized the election campaign of the pro-President's political party Our Ukraine as a "brilliant failure". To make his point, Kudelia compared Our Ukraine's 24% support rate in the 2002 parliamentary elections with less than 14% backing in 2006.

    At the same time, the speaker underlined the success of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc. It came second with 22% of the votes, outpolling Yushchenko's "Our Ukraine" 2:1 or higher throughout most of Central and Eastern Ukraine. There are some reasons of this success, remarked Kudelia. Firstly, unlike President Yushchenko, Yulia Tymoshenko "has passed the test of power". "During her term as Prime Minister, she did not steal anything. On the contrary, she tried to return the stolen property to the people," explained Kudelia the popularity of Tymoshenko among common citizens.

    Secondly, according to Kudelia, Tymoshenko won the corruption debate dominating the election. Having dismissed Tymoshenko from the government in September 2005, Yushchenko accused her of plotting a coup against him and favoring certain businesses. Tymoshenko, in turn, accused Yushchenko of surrounding himself with corrupt politicians who manipulated him. "The untransparent gas deal with Russia in January 2006 served as the critical evidence of corruption among Ukraine's top officials", stated Kudelia.

    Thirdly, Tymoshenko in her election campaign appealed to socially unprotected people, like students, pensioners and doctors. "It was not new for Ukrainian politicians," said Kudelia, "but this time she promised that rich people would help the poor."

    Closing his presentation, Serhiy Kudelia expressed hope that politicians would stop using the symbols of the Orange Revolution that divided Ukrainians, but would try to find common ground and achieve reconciliation.

    The final speaker was Adrian Karatnycky. He gave his overview of the elections and the business component in the Ukrainian politics. The speaker assured that the "orange" parties (Our Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Socialist Party) still remain the majority with 54% of votes, if you combine their results in the parliamentary elections. He also indicated there was "no question" that Yulia Tymoshenko will be Ukraine's next prime minister, in an "Orange" government.

    Karatnycky`s remarks raised serious concerns about the Party of Regions which received the largest share of votes in the elections with 32%. He noted there were two distinct groups inside this party. The first group is comprised of marginal, pro-Moscow politicians and those who were responsible for the 2004 presidential elections fraud. The second group represents Ukrainian businessmen who have interests in the West, led by Rinat Akhemetov of System Capital Management. In Karatnycky's view he is the true power in the Regions group and a "pragmatist" but he must distance himself through "concrete action" from discredited politicians in the Regions bloc. According to Karatnycky, now the Industrial Union Group, the powerful group of enterprises which originated in Eastern Ukraine, already has 40% of all its investment in the countries of the European Union. The interest of Ukrainian businesses in getting access to European and American markets will facilitate governmental policy towards Euro-Atlantic integration.

    Karatnycky noted that this free and fair parliamentary election has marked the end of the post-Soviet era in Ukraine, and finally Ukraine was moving in the right direction.

    Among the attendees in the SAIS Rome Auditorium were the representatives of think tanks and NGOs, mass media, Ukrainian diaspora, and the Embassy of Ukraine to the United States. A reception followed the event.

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