Re: some thoughts

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: : This topic is very interesting, here are some of my thoughts. : : 1. Right now Ukraine is pretty much a sattelite of Russia, : Not in my opinion. Ukraine's trade with Russia accounts for about 20% of the total volume. Ukraine has very independent from Russia governemnt, army, national bank. SO far all Urkaine's cooperation with Russia comes down to the very symbolic CIS ties. : : heavily dependant on russian : : oil and gas (and "good will" I might add - should Russia discontinue giving gas and : : oil basically for free - Ukraine is in for some cold winter). : Please, give some reference that says that Russia currently gives Ukraine its oil and gas "for free". Thank you. : : Some areas of the industry, especially in the Eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian plants : : were tightly integrated with Russian counterparts are in a huge decline since the break-up : : of the Soviet Union, largely due to Kravchuk's policy of not-cooperation with Russia, : This is just false. If you look, e.g., at the Russian Far East, a lot of industry there is also in a "huge decline" despite the total lack of some local Kravchuks and other enemies of the Russian state. : - : : the plant I worked at was working at a 10% capacity after we were prohibited to sell : : stuff to Russians. I've heard it is completely shut down now. : Again, I would like to see some proof that your plant was "prohibited to sell stuff to Russia". I believe this is just not true. : : In the military sphere, Ukraine is also, pretty much, a sattelite of Russia. : Why? This is extremely not obvious to me. So far all Ukrainian military cooperation with Russia basically came down to leasing Sebastopol navy base. In no way does it make Ukraine Russia's "sattelite". : :Another choice would : : be joining NATO, however I am not sure if this perspective is realistic at all. : : Russia will of course oppose that and quite possibly Crimea will be gone in no time. : Why? Any serious reasons for that besides Russian desire to see it this way? : : : This knot is too tough, I don't think NATO would want to deal with it, unless Russia : : joins NATO (Putin said something about a possibility of that happening). : Russia will NOT join NATO, as Putin himself said later. Russia does not like NATO in its current form, it tries to compete with NATO in every way possible by supporting some worst NATO's enemies such as Milosevic, Iraq, Iran, Libya, N.Korea, China. : : 2. There is nothing bad in being a "cheap labor source" - a lot of Western companies outsource : : their production to a 3rd world countries 'cause the labor costs are lower. : It's not bad unless you wish to be a 3rd world country. : : When USSR broke up, Ukraine was one of the most potent from the new countries that : : emerged on the ruins of the Soviet Empire. Now, according to Western Analysts : : (unfortunately I don't have a refernce, but I have seen a very detailed review on : : the american TV) it is one of the worst in the european part of the former USSR. : : Baltic countries and Russia are far ahead. : I can agree that Baltic countries are indeed ahead. I can't say the same about Russia. The average salary is about the same as in Ukraine: around $40, with the average prices significantly higher. It makes Russian level of life _lower_ and not _higher_. : : 4. Most likely Ukraine will not "disappear", however some loss of the territory is quite : : possible. Separatist tendencies in the Crimea and some regions of the Eastern Ukraine : : grow fast, and will grow if the economical situation will not improve and the pressure : : from the Western Ukraine will not decline. : More speculation. I see no serious political forces in Ukraine that would support such a scenario. It looks more like some pipe dreams of the Russian nationalists, and not the reality. : Sincerely, : Andrew

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