Posted by kovalenko on August 07, 2000 at 19:17:37:
This topic is very interesting, here are some of my thoughts.
1. Right now Ukraine is pretty much a sattelite of Russia, heavily dependant on russian
oil and gas (and "good will" I might add - should Russia discontinue giving gas and
oil basically for free - Ukraine is in for some cold winter).
Some areas of the industry, especially in the Eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian plants
were tightly integrated with Russian counterparts are in a huge decline since the break-up
of the Soviet Union, largely due to Kravchuk's policy of not-cooperation with Russia, -
the plant I worked at was working at a 10% capacity after we were prohibited to sell
stuff to Russians. I've heard it is completely shut down now.
I guess that makes Ukraine less of a "sattelite" , but is it good for Ukraine?
I doubt that.
In the military sphere, Ukraine is also, pretty much, a sattelite of Russia. Another choice would
be joining NATO, however I am not sure if this perspective is realistic at all.
Russia will of course oppose that and quite possibly Crimea will be gone in no time.
This knot is too tough, I don't think NATO would want to deal with it, unless Russia
joins NATO (Putin said something about a possibility of that happening).
2. There is nothing bad in being a "cheap labor source" - a lot of Western companies outsource
their production to a 3rd world countries 'cause the labor costs are lower.
Poor countries only benefit from being a "cheap labor source". Such countries as Japan
capitalize on that to become prosperous - look at the progress they've made in the
last 30-40 years.
3. I just can't share the optimizm of the majority of people who have voted on this topic.
What had happened in Ukraine in the last 10 years that makes you think it is going to
become a prosperous country? Wishful thinking, nothing else.
When USSR broke up, Ukraine was one of the most potent from the new countries that
emerged on the ruins of the Soviet Empire. Now, according to Western Analysts
(unfortunately I don't have a refernce, but I have seen a very detailed review on
the american TV) it is one of the worst in the european part of the former USSR.
Baltic countries and Russia are far ahead.
4. Most likely Ukraine will not "disappear", however some loss of the territory is quite
possible. Separatist tendencies in the Crimea and some regions of the Eastern Ukraine
grow fast, and will grow if the economical situation will not improve and the pressure
from the Western Ukraine will not decline.
5. Dlia Zlodeja - sudia po vsemu ty chelovek ves'ma razumny, tvoi pis'ma, gde ty pisal po-delu
bylo ves'ma interesno chitat'. S umorom u tebia tozhe normal'no.
Ty delaesh oshibku vo-pervyh snizhajas' do urovnia bydla, vse argumenty kotorogo svodiatsia
k "katsapy p'jut' gorilku" i, vo-vtoryh, schitaja, chto vse, kto podderzhivaet Ukrainskuju
Kul'turu - "bendery" i "samostijniki". Da, nasil'no mil ne budesh, i ja dumaju, chto
nasil'stvennaja ukrainizatsija (tochnee ee popytki) ni k chemu horoshemu ne privedut,
odnako tvoi vypady protiv Ukrainskoj kul'tury kak takovoj govoriat o tom, chto ty s nej
prosto ne znakom. Vot, k primeru, russkij tozhe koe-gde nasazhdali siloj, eto-zhe ne
delaet Dostoevskogo ili Tolstogo menee cennymi.