BRAMA, Aug 19, 2004, 11:00 am ET
Op-Ed
Kuchma Factor as test for Putin
— By Oleksandr Yelyashkevych
The relationship between Russia and Ukraine is an extremely delicate issue. The history of the two key countries of the post-Soviet space is filled with contradictions and intricacies that make it hard for historians and politicians to determine the truth. It is obvious however that the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine will have a serious influence on the future course of events as well as on political perspectives of the Russian leader. Vladimir Putin today has the highest rating among voters of not only Russia but also the part of Ukraine that is most important for Ukrainian power in the mechanism of collecting the majority of votes. And it will be the vote (or command), as well as real actions of one single Russian "not quite common" citizen, that Ukrainian power will need.
Leonid Kuchma is the first who will need it, as he is seeking guarantees of his personal freedom and protection of his personal funds and funds of his family. The guarantees are being part of a complex scheme of agreements between the Dniepropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kiev clans concerning their future in Ukraine. The agreements include everything: so called political reform, elections, strategic partners and more. Kuchma cannot afford to risk the final outcome and is trying to use Putin to the fullest.
Everybody understands that public support of Yanukovich by the Russian president will have an irreversible effect on the course of the presidential race in Ukraine. This is the case when Ukrainian leaders will pay any price for Putin's support.
One would think that finally the long awaited moment by the Russian elite has arrived, when Ukraine can be easily choked in embraces and they can show the West who is the real master in the CIS house.
It would have been easy for Vladimir Putin and his federal security service if they did not know that they would have to protect and support Yanukovich, whose criminal past is recorded in Soviet courts, and Kuchma whose criminal activities have been documented in his own conversations in his personal cabinet.
The Kuchma case (not a 'tape scandal', as Kuchma's proponents try to call it) contains abundant evidence of crimes despicable in their cruelty and cynicism committed by Kuchma and his aids. Recordings of conversations in the presidential cabinet reveal a conniving ruler who mercilessly eliminated his opponents, and a large scale thief who was building his wealth stealing billions dollars from Ukrainian people. Putin and the FSB (formerly KGB) team know very well that the authenticated recordings are awaiting the moment in the U.S. when they become material evidence in court trials against Kuchma. Putin also understands that his helping Kuchma in obtaining immunity will be perceived in the future as an accessory to conceal cruel crimes.
It is hard to tell who specifically or what circumstances might make Putin go against his honor and conscience. There is no doubt that as a career official he must despise robbers, murderers, and thieves. There is no doubt either that he understands that any Ukrainian president who comes to power would have to take Russian interests into consideration. That makes 'national interest' hardly a motive for condoning Kuchma's crimes. So who or what can push Putin towards a decision that will reflect negatively on his image?
Could it be his desire to protect the reputation of former KGB? It is well known that one of the most repulsive roles in the crimes belongs to Leonid Derkach, former head of Ukrainian Security. Or is it really possible that the Ukrainian secret service does have in its possession materials pertaining to the past of Russian President, as was mentioned by L. Derkach in one of the recorded conversations with Kuchma, and that they are blackmailing Putin?
One can only guess. In any event, in the very near future Russian President will have to make a choice, a decision that will have very important consequences.
Oleksandr Yelyashkevych was a Member of Parliament in Ukraine (Verkhovna Rada) from 1994 to 2002. He headed the Parliamentary commissions on presidential (1999) and parliamentary (2002) elections. In 2000 there was an attempt on his life. According to Mr. Yelyashkevych, secret tape recordings made in the cabinet of Ukrainian President reveal that the attempt was ordered by Leonid Kuchma and Ukraine's head of security L. Derkach. In 2002 Oleksandr Yelyashkevych was granted political asylum by the U.S.
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