BRAMA, Sep 26, 2003, 9:00 am ET
Press Release
Ukrainian Elections, Domestic Concerns and Foreign Influence
New York, NY (UCCA) — On September 17, 2003, Olexiy Haran, Professor of Political Science and Director, School for Policy Analysis, University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, spoke at Columbia University's Harriman Institute of International Affairs. In his speech, "Ukraine on the Eve of Presidential Elections: Domestic Struggles and Foreign Influence", he addressed the upcoming 2004 presidential elections, political reform, and the influence of both foreign and domestic pressures on Ukraine.
According to the most recent polls Haran stated, the two primary candidates for the next President of Ukraine are Victor Yushchenko of the "Our Ukraine" bloc with 22.6 percent of the vote, and Petro Symonenko of the Communist Party of Ukraine with 13.6 percent. The demographic support of both candidates is clear-cut, with Yushchenko dominating the electorate in the northern and western regions, and Symonenko holding the southeast. Haran foresees that the prospects of a race in 2004 between these two candidates is likely and in favor of Yushchenko, pending his continued position that President Kuchma not be prosecuted following the 2004 election. According to Haran, the recent polls indicate that Yushchenko draws most of his support from village communities and large cities, as well as from the youth and the educated. In contrast to his propagated image as a nationalist, Yushchenko's support is ethnically diverse. On the other hand, small cities tend to support Symonenko and communism for reasons of job security and economic stability. To win the election, the challenge for Yushchenko and "Our Ukraine" will be finding support in the southern and eastern regions where the alternative opposition to communism is voiceless and weak.
On the topic of political reform, Haran addressed the current issue in Ukraine of limiting the executive power. Presently, the populace elects the Head of State, however there is debate in the parliament over the prospects of instituting a parliamentary presidental system. Such a change to the constitution would need a two-thirds (300/450) majority vote to pass in parliament. Yushchenko and popular opinion are not in support of this change due to the limiting effects it would have on popular political power. If passed, the next president would be chosen by the new parliament elected in 2006, cutting the 2004 president's term short by three years. Professor Haran agreed that this "would not be a good move for Ukraine" for this would open the government to greater "oligarchic clan" manipulation. In terms of political reform, Professor Haran believes that the French or Polish political systems for balance of powers is a possible alternative for Ukraine.
Foreign political influence in Ukraine is essentially economically based and coming from Russia. According to Haran, the two countries are still closely tied economically, and now with the signing in Yalta of a free trade agreement they are solidifying their close ties. Ukrainian energy markets are still dependant on Russia but that dependence is declining. In 1994, Russia made up 34.7 percent of the Ukrainian gross national export and 58 percent of its import, more recently in 2002, Russia accounted for only 17.8 percent of the export and 37 percent of the import. According to Haran, economically Russia is still an important part of Ukraine's market and this was proven in Yalta last week when Ukraine signed a free trade agreement with Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan creating one single economic space. This agreement could change the trend of Ukraine's economic independence, and could act as a hindrance to Ukraine's future integration into the European Union.
In closing, Haran stated that Ukraine has a good chance of overcoming these obstacles and establishing a stable democratic, sovereign state. The political opposition is maneuvering, and for Yushchenko who has limited media access, Haran stated that grass roots organizations are essential for countering communist propaganda. Grass roots networks will need to come into full fruition in the southern and eastern parts of Ukraine to give Yushchenko a connection to the people on the ground in the region where "Our Ukraine" has little to no media access. Haran recommends, in the upcoming election, that election observers monitor the candidates and the role the media plays in their respective campaigns; as well as the vote count, which should be representative of all political sides for the purpose of objectivity. Transparency will need to be the goal for the electoral process as Ukraine strives to become a stable democracy. In conclusion, Haran stated that access to information and free media is the only way for the populace to understand the significance of what is happening now in the Ukrainian political arena.
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